What 2009 Holds in Store for Sudan

There are several events pending in which some kind of decision or action will have to be taken that could significantly affect the future of Sudan.

The first is the matter of the accusations of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes that have been made against Sudanese President Omar al Bashir before the International Criminal Court (ICC) at the Hague. The court has to decide whether or not to issue a formal indictment and arrest warrant for Bashir, and that decision is expected soon. While there is strong evidence to move against the Sudanese president, there has been significant disagreement as to whether or not it is advisable to do so. Salva Kiir, Vice President of Sudan and President of Southern Sudan, reportedly asked President Bush to block the indictment during his recent visit to the US and meeting with the outgoing leader; Bush apparently refused. There is concern that such a step could intensify the conflict and violence that has been taking place in Darfur, cause foreign aid workers to be targeted and expelled, destabilize the country and region, and derail the development of lasting peace.

What makes this development a bit more troublesome is that both North and South Sudan have been beefing up their military strength, the North much more so. Last year, in violation of a UN embargo against the sale of arms to the Khartoum government, both Russia and China provided high power fighter planes to Bashir after the accusations had been made before the ICC. And on one of the freighters hijacked off Somalia last year there were reportedly tanks destined for Southern Sudan.

The border between North and South Sudan has yet to be definitively established. While a commission issued a decision earlier this year in that regard based on traditional tribal boundaries, because it drew a line locating oil-rich territory in the South, the North alleged it overstepped its competency, and so the matter is once again before international authorities.

Demarcating the border is one necessary step for elections to take place later in the year, another is the outcome of the census taken last year. For a number of procedural reasons, the results of the census are highly suspect. Some premature reports have estimated the population of the South as low as three million, Southern President Salva Kiir said his government would not accept a figure less than 15 million. The problem goes beyond procedure and reflects the complex and shifting reality of the population of Southern Sudan. Many Southerners are still internally displaced people (IDP) in the north, while others are still refugees in Kenya and Uganda, and that reality is shifting daily as people relocate. None of that is taken into account in the way the census was carried out. Of course population concentrations have a direct bearing on the way the representatives in the national congress will be allocated.

Originally scheduled for the height of the rainy season in July, a number of international organizations have proposed that elections be delayed until drier November, which will also allow more time for preparation. The Government of Southern Sudan has expressed its unwillingness to go ahead with the electoral process until some of these unresolved matters are satisfactorily concluded.

The issue which is looming in the background, though, and seems to dominate people’s attention is the vote on the South’s succession from the North, which will take place in 2011. Some commentators have alleged that preoccupation with and anticipation of the South’s succession from the North has diverted energy and effort from the full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005, and left the still live conflict in Darfur and the substantial struggles of other areas of the country out of the equation.

I realize that this is a lot of complex information, especially for people who may not be all that familiar with the details of the situation in Sudan. But these unfolding events do appear not infrequently in the news and are significant for the foreseeable future of the country. They underscore the crucial importance of the presence of the Church and her activity here. And more than anything they call for prayer.

And so I would like to ask all of you to please pray daily for a true and lasting peace in Sudan. Please invoke the intercession of the Blessed Virgin Mary, Mother of Africa, Queen of Peace, Our Lady of Sudan by praying a Hail Mary daily for this intention. And please ask Sudan’s own saint, Josephine Bakhita of Darfur to plead for the wellbeing of her compatriots.